tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-49724532003076869062024-02-21T22:37:06.230+08:00iProperty AgentHong Kong Property Agency Weblog | Hong Kong Office ListAnonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01548621677488929747noreply@blogger.comBlogger165125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4972453200307686906.post-66268044977528510682015-05-20T12:59:00.001+08:002015-05-20T12:59:24.383+08:00Hong Kong property developers hit fresh 1-year highs<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-0_64ieISCEQ/VVwUgSEZoVI/AAAAAAAAAaM/nb9nEQaE4Hs/s1600/hk_tourists_552009365.jpg" imageanchor="1" ><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-0_64ieISCEQ/VVwUgSEZoVI/AAAAAAAAAaM/nb9nEQaE4Hs/s1600/hk_tourists_552009365.jpg" /></a>
<p>The skyline of Hong Kong, where property stocks hit a year-peak as earnings from a stock market rally sparked an advance in the equity market. Photo: Bloomberg</p>
<p>Hong Kong property developers were the major beneficiaries on Monday of the weaker-than-expected mainland manufacturing data for April, lifting a number of the city’s brick-and-mortar shares to a fresh one-year high in the first trading day of May.</p>
<p>Shares in New World Development rose 5.4 per cent to a 52-week high of HK$10.86, after UBS raised the target price on the shares to HK$11.65, while Sun Hung Kai Properties rose almost 5 per cent to HK$135.3, another 52-week high.</p>
<p>Joining the other real estate shares that hit their highest level in one year, Sino Land and Henderson Land Development jumped 3.5 and 3.4 per cent respectively.</p>
<p>However, overall turnover of the properties shares remained subdued, with majority of shares which exchanged hands taking place in HSBC, AIA, and Tencent. The trio dropped 1.4, 1.1 and 1 per cent respectively.</p>
<p>All major state-owned lenders finished in red on Monday morning, with China Construction Bank being the only exception, rising 1.2 per cent.</p>
<p>China’s factory activity slowed more than initially thought in April, according to the final reading of HSBC/Markit’s data. The final April reading came at 48.9, down from the preliminary data of 49.4 that was released last month.</p>
<p>On a brighter note, Fonsun International, controlled by mainland billionaire Guo Guangchang, rose more than 5 per cent after China’s largest privately held conglomerate announced over the weekend it is buying US Insurer Ironshore for about US$2 billion.</p>
<p>- http://www.scmp.com/business/markets/article/1785572/hong-kong-property-developers-hit-fresh-1-year-highs</p>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04005726225577051963noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4972453200307686906.post-5975715947565216012015-01-02T23:50:00.000+08:002015-01-02T23:50:04.615+08:00Hong Kong: China property leads gains in Hong Kong shares, casino stocks fall<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizyVMlYz9AiZsSdFN3-5pBK1v6bNVnZMG3aVV-tKrSjp0dQmL1SQjhByKdYR_77bd47ilX7MPF-BbMTC_xw14pp7PfDPBPoDhRBM4b1bFGsJ_JadMeIp5uu2vzHj3AaV9L_-kgdWzG8zX6/s1600/ALhk.jpg" imageanchor="1" ><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizyVMlYz9AiZsSdFN3-5pBK1v6bNVnZMG3aVV-tKrSjp0dQmL1SQjhByKdYR_77bd47ilX7MPF-BbMTC_xw14pp7PfDPBPoDhRBM4b1bFGsJ_JadMeIp5uu2vzHj3AaV9L_-kgdWzG8zX6/s1600/ALhk.jpg" width="100%" /></a>
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http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/stocks/hong-kong-china-property-leads-gains-in-hong-kong-shares-casino-stocks-fall
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[HONG KONG] Hong Kong and Chinese enterprise shares ended higher on the first trading day of the new year on Friday and posted their best week in the last five weeks, with Chinese property and financials stocks leading the way.
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The Hang Seng index ended up 1.1 per cent at 23,857.82 while the China Enterprises Index gained 2.2 per cent to 12,245.35.
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The blue-chip index is up 2.2 per cent for the week, while the China Enterprises Index climbed 5.95 per cent, fuelled by the strong sentiment in mainland markets, which have surged on expectations that Beijing will roll out more stimulus measures to support the slowing economy.
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Shares of Chinese property developers in Hong Kong surged as reports of strong December sales eased worries about the cooling housing market. China Resources Land Ltd climbed 7.1 per cent, China Overseas Land and Investments Ltd 8.5 per cent and China Vanke 10.6 per cent.
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Financial stocks also rose with Ping An Insurance jumping 5.1 per cent, China Life Insurance rose 3.1 per cent, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd up 1.9 per cent.
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China markets were closed for a holiday on Friday and will reopen on Monday.
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Casino shares fell after the release of Macau's gambling revenue for December, with Wynn Macau down 3.7 per cent, Melco Crown sliding 2.7 per cent and Galaxy Entertainment losing 1.8 per cent.
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Macau reported during the lunch break that its gaming revenue fell 30.4 per cent year-on-year in December and was down 2.6 per cent in 2014.
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Shares in China's biggest trainmakers China CNR and CSR Corp in Hong Kong continued to rise after the two firms confirmed that they will merge. CNR surged 16 per cent and CSR leap 18 per cent.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01548621677488929747noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4972453200307686906.post-35245972692207426012014-12-15T04:33:00.001+08:002014-12-15T04:33:29.012+08:00Local buyers push Hong Kong home prices to new highs as mainland demand slumps<small>http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/article/1648791/local-buyers-push-home-prices-higher</small>
<br /><br />Mainland interest waning after stamp duty increases, agency figures show<br /><br />Local buying is the key driver sending Hong Kong home prices to fresh highs, according to a survey, with demand from mainland buyers dropping to a six -year low in the third quarter and likely to shrink further.<br /><br />Centaline Property Agency figures show that mainlanders buying flats as individuals accounted for 7.8 per cent of sales of new homes costing less than HK$12 million in the third quarter, down from 10.9 per cent in the second quarter and a peak of 35.5 per cent in the third quarter of 2011.<br /><br />"Mainland buyers will continue to retreat from Hong Kong as their interest in buying has been reduced by the high stamp duties," said Wong Leung-sing, an associate director of research at Centaline. "It indicates that soaring mass-market home prices have mainly been driven up by local demand."<br /><br />Mainlanders' overall spending on new Hong Kong flats fell to its lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2008, data showed. The survey found that mainlanders bought 8.6 per cent of new homes in the third quarter, down from 12.3 per cent in the second.<br /><br />"Chinese buyers have virtually withdrawn from the Hong Kong property market," Wong said.<br /><br />The survey counted all buyers with Putonghua names as mainlanders, he said, pointing out the figure would also include mainlanders who had secured permanent resident status after living in Hong Kong for seven years.<br /><br />The Hong Kong government introduced a buyer's stamp duty of 15 per cent on non-permanent residents and those buying through companies in October 2012 in an attempt to curb rising prices.<br /><br />Stamp duty was also doubled, to up to 8.5 per cent, on purchases of property valued at more than HK$2 million, except by first-time buyers.<br /><br />In the secondary market, mainlanders accounted for 3.1 per cent of sales, down from 3.8 per cent in the second quarter.<br /><br />They accounted for 22. 6 per cent of sales of new homes worth more than HK$12 million in the third quarter, down from 26.5 per cent in the second quarter and a peak of 49.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2011.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04005726225577051963noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4972453200307686906.post-52063056310816617912014-12-03T19:47:00.004+08:002014-12-03T19:47:44.305+08:00Hong Kong's housing market facing a slump in 2015<img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEij4iLdv2lGMfGm5EMVMeCrIKMrrltacpfrfp5ZbPwMv-aogmLz-FOlu0TPZ7Yzj2IXMH3OWIy8s3nfycB4eFwCe-CfUCWVET4j4_w6kLUR4UPyHUtb_C446N6evGNi29bUQz7TZPXSpkq9/s1600/dbac2807374ef01b33f4c31398a46ca9.jpg" />
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<small>http://www.scmp.com/property/hong-kong-china/article/1645542/hong-kongs-housing-market-facing-slump-2015</small>
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Anyone looking for blue skies and sunshine in Hong Kong's property market could be disappointed. It's hard to find an analyst who can put a positive spin on prospects for next year, with predictions of price dips of at least 5 per cent in 2015. Some, such as Barclays property specialist Paul Louie, have forecast a plunge of as much as 30 per cent.
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After four years of steady increases which have now slowed, analysts see a severe correction looming, as the combination of a surge in new supply, the effects of government-imposed cooling measures and next year's inevitable interest rate hike combine in a "perfect storm", according to Louie.
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Hong Kong brokerage CLSA is slightly less pessimistic, expecting property prices to slump 15 per cent by the end of next year as the government's market-cooling measures bite.
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"Prices will correct a little more if interest rates are raised and the economy weakens," Nicole Wong, CLSA's regional head of property research, says of the group's recent report on the Hong Kong and mainland property markets.
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CLSA says Hong Kong property prices were already 3 per cent off their February peak. The brokerage had been expecting a 10 per cent decline by the end of next year but has now revised downwards to 15 per cent for 2015, given the increase in US Treasury bond yields and the Hong Kong government's decision to bring forward the presale of units due for completion next year.
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On a positive note, Wong says property prices should not fall dramatically, even if interest rates go up and housing supply rise significantly next year.
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"Property prices have started a mild decline," she says. "The pricing of new projects released recently is close to or lower than that of second-hand homes. It is a signal that a correction will happen."
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The rate of growth in residential prices has already slowed, rising only 4.28 per cent year-on-year to the end of July, according to the Ratings and Valuation Department. This contrasts sharply with the 18.92 per cent year-on-year increase in July 2013.
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This follows four years of rapid growth when prices jumped 117.2 per cent from December 2008 to December 2012, driven higher by a flood of liquidity after the global financial crisis.
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But even a late summer upswing, when August saw sales of new homes leap 82.33 per cent year-on-year to 6,212 units, has failed to boost confidence. Louie says he doubts the volume of sales can be sustained, describing home prices as "very unaffordable". He expects a 30 percent correction by the end of 2015.
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In recent years, the market has been propelled upwards by measures such as strict government controls on development, tight land supply, low interest rates and currency stability. This resulted in rises for 2009 of 28.5 per cent, 21 per cent in 2010, 11.1 per cent in 2011 and 25.7 per cent in 2012.
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To curb price exuberance, November 2010 saw the government introduce a 15 per cent flip tax to stop speculation, and the stamp duty was raised to 8.5 per cent on units worth HK$20 million or more.
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October 2012 introduced a buyer's stamp duty of 15 per cent charged on property bought by foreigners.
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In February last year, the stamp duty on purchases over HK$2 million was doubled, but that measure lasted only a little over a year and ended in May.
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So what lies ahead? Analysts see a number of drivers depressing property prices next year. "The possibility for an interest rate hike to finally come in late 2015 or early 2016 is one," says Mizuho Securities Asia analyst Shen Jianguang, adding that Hong Kong's interest rate rise may lag behind that in the US by a few months, but not by more.
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Increasing housing supply is another factor, after beleaguered chief executive Leung Chun-ying committed to providing 470,000 new housing units in 10 years, including public and subsidised housing. "Long-term, it's hard to achieve this goal, but it means more supply is likely in the next few years," Shen says.
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Another factor will be weaker economic momentum, "especially due to weakness in the retail sector and flagging visitor numbers amid the end of the tourism-driven boom in the past four years".
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On the plus side, a consumer survey by City University shows that sentiment for the property market remains strong despite the Occupy Central protests, Shen says. In addition, renting is still more expensive than buying, pushing potential buyers to enter the market for smaller units.
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There's also some discounting of new housing stock by developers. "The primary market is offering new supply on the cheap compared to existing housing," Shen says. "Generally, we expect housing prices to go down by 5 per cent in 2015, but it's unlikely to be more than that."Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01548621677488929747noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4972453200307686906.post-61256246951602990052014-11-19T03:40:00.001+08:002014-11-19T03:40:07.200+08:004 Top Hong Kong Property Picks<div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.4em; margin-bottom: 1em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
Hong Kong Property Sector 2015 outlook: Be Selective<br /><br />Credit Suisse</div>
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<table style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-collapse: collapse; border-spacing: 0px; border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.2rem; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 581px;"><tbody style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<tr class="data" style="background: white; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; height: 2.1rem; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><td align="LEFT" colspan="5" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Summary of Credit Suisse forecasts for 2015</strong></td></tr>
<tr class="data even" style="background: rgb(230, 235, 241); border: 0px; font-size: 12px; height: 2.1rem; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top"></td><td align="LEFT" colspan="2" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">% YoY changes in assumptions</strong></td><td align="LEFT" colspan="2" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Cap rate (%)</strong></td></tr>
<tr class="data" style="background: white; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; height: 2.1rem; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top"></td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">FY14</strong></td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">FY15E</strong></td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">FY14</strong></td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">FY15E</strong></td></tr>
<tr class="data even" style="background: rgb(230, 235, 241); border: 0px; font-size: 12px; height: 2.1rem; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Residential (price)</strong></td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">7</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">-15</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">3.00-4.55</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">3.25-4.80</td></tr>
<tr class="data" style="background: white; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; height: 2.1rem; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Office (rent)</strong></td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">5</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">15</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">4.75</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">5</td></tr>
<tr class="data even" style="background: rgb(230, 235, 241); border: 0px; font-size: 12px; height: 2.1rem; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Retail (rent)</strong></td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">0</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">0</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">4.75</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">5</td></tr>
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<strong style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-size: 15px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Price corrections likely to be pushed forward to 2015</strong></div>
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The price fall expectations did not materialise in 2014 as a combined result of persistently low interest rate and the DSD relaxation during the year. We forecast that in 2015 residential prices will correct by 15% YoY, and office and retail rents will change by +15% and 0% YoY, respectively. We expect a cap-rate expansion of 25 bp across the residential, office and retail property assets in 2015.</div>
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Economic fundamentals intact, but unexciting (1) Employment outlook: we have noted a modest drop in job vacancies, especially in retail, hospitality and F&B sectors since 2Q13. There is a possibility of a modest increase in the unemployment rate, and this might in turn slow down the momentum of home purchases by first-time buyers and upgraders. (2) Interest rate is likely to rise from 2Q15: Credit Suisse Economics team expects interest rates might start going up in 2Q15. (3) A challenging year for retail: retail sales normalisation appears to be structural, not cyclical, along with the continued anti-corruption campaigns.</div>
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<strong style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-size: 15px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Residential supply analysis</strong></div>
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We have carried out a detailed analysis of residential completions that will take place over 2015-20E: (1) by completion year: an average of 12,900 units p.a. of residential completions are expected over 2015-20E, with a momentary surge in completions in 2018E; (2) by developer: SHKP, CKH, and Henderson Land are the top three developers in terms of market share (by units) in 2015-20E, accounting for 51% of the total supply; (3) by district: Yuen Long, TKO, Tsuen Wan and Kai Tak are the districts with the most abundant supply, accounting for 42% of the total supply in 2015-20E, and by (4) by land acquisition year: the residential completions during 2015-17E are mostly driven by the land bought in 2012 or before. The cheaper land bought in 2013 or after would be reflected in the completions in 2018 and beyond.</div>
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<strong style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-size: 15px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Retail: Lacklustre state likely to continue</strong></div>
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In 2015, we expect the retail rent growth momentum to further decelerate and merely stay flat YoY, as a combined result of: (1) leases signed for the aggressive expansion back in 2012-13 being due for renewals in 2015; and (2) market risks emerging from the street protests in Hong Kong; however, this could be partly offset by (i) rental renewal pressure in 2015, proxied by the magnitude of positive rental reversion staying the lowest since 2011; and (ii) a potentially two-tiered performance of street stores and shopping malls, and the outperformance of shopping malls because of their proactive management.</div>
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<strong style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-size: 15px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Stock selection.</strong> Our pecking order among sub-sectors is office landlords, followed by developers and retail landlords. Our <strong style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-size: 15px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Top Picks </strong>for 2015 are Hongkong Land ( <a class="t-company" href="http://quotes.barrons.com/SG/H78" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #115b8f; font-size: 15px; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-wrap: break-word;">H78.SG</a> ), Henderson Land ( <a class="t-company" href="http://quotes.barrons.com/HK/0012" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #115b8f; font-size: 15px; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-wrap: break-word;">0012.HK</a> ), Sun Hung Kai Properties, and Wharf Holdings ( <a class="t-company" href="http://quotes.barrons.com/HK/0004" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #115b8f; font-size: 15px; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-wrap: break-word;">0004.HK</a> ). </div>
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Hongkong Land is our top pick, as we expect a rental boom in Central office in FY15.</div>
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We like Henderson Land, given its improving asset turnover, expected progress in the land conversion arbitration system, and the continuous share purchase by the chairman. We like SHKP for its quality and diversified portfolio in Hong Kong and China, and impressive execution at project launches.</div>
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Among retail landlords, we only prefer Wharf, with the ripening of its IP portfolio in China and enhanced returns upon the asset enhancement initiatives (AEI).</div>
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<strong style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-size: 15px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Other rating changes:</strong> We downgrade Link REIT ( <a class="t-company" href="http://quotes.barrons.com/HK/0823" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #115b8f; font-size: 15px; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-wrap: break-word;">0823.HK</a> ) to <strong style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-size: 15px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">UNDERPERFORM</strong>(from Neutral) on a rising interest rate scenario; downgrade Hysan Development (<a class="t-company" href="http://quotes.barrons.com/HK/0014" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #115b8f; font-size: 15px; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-wrap: break-word;">0014.HK</a> ) to <strong style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-size: 15px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">NEUTRAL</strong> (from Outperform) amid a challenging outlook for the retail sector. The key investment risks to our calls are a quicker-than-expected turnaround in the Chinese economy and its property sector, delay in interest rate hike, and higher-than-expected market risks driven by street protests.</div>
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Valuation summary</h4>
<table style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-collapse: collapse; border-spacing: 0px; border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.2rem; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 581px;"><tbody style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<tr class="data" style="background: white; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; height: 2.1rem; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Hong Kong - Developer</strong> <strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">s</strong></td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ticker</strong></td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Rating</strong></td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Share price (HK$)</strong></td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Target price (HK$)</strong></td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">up/down %</strong></td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Market cap (US$bn)</strong></td></tr>
<tr class="data even" style="background: rgb(230, 235, 241); border: 0px; font-size: 12px; height: 2.1rem; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Cheung Kong</strong></td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">0001.HK</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">O</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">140.4</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">161</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">15%</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">42</td></tr>
<tr class="data" style="background: white; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; height: 2.1rem; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">SHKP</strong> </td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">0016.HK</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">O</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">116.4</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">140.64</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">21%</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">41</td></tr>
<tr class="data even" style="background: rgb(230, 235, 241); border: 0px; font-size: 12px; height: 2.1rem; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Henderson Land</strong> </td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">0012.HK</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">O</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">52</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">62.48</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">20%</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">20</td></tr>
<tr class="data" style="background: white; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; height: 2.1rem; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Wheelock</strong> </td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">0020.HK</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">O </td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">37.2</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">46.61</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">25%</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">10</td></tr>
<tr class="data even" style="background: rgb(230, 235, 241); border: 0px; font-size: 12px; height: 2.1rem; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">New World Dev</strong> </td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">0017.HK</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">N </td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">9.7</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">10.45</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">8%</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">11</td></tr>
<tr class="data" style="background: white; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; height: 2.1rem; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Sino Land </strong></td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">0083.HK</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">O </td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">13</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">15.3</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">18%</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">10</td></tr>
<tr class="data even" style="background: rgb(230, 235, 241); border: 0px; font-size: 12px; height: 2.1rem; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Kerry Properties</strong></td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">0683.HK</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">O</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">26.8</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">31.63</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">18%</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">5</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; clear: left; color: #666666; font-size: 1.2rem; line-height: 1.4em; margin-bottom: 1em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<em style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Source: Credit Suisse estimates</em></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.4em; margin-bottom: 1em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
</div>
<div class="module inset-box full-width " style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-top-style: none; clear: both; color: #333333; float: none; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px 20px 0px 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 8px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 581.625px;">
<div class="inset-tree" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<div class="inset-content" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<h4 style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-top-color: rgb(0, 139, 200); border-top-style: solid; border-width: 6px 0px 0px; font-size: 1.4em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 4px 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
Valuation summary</h4>
<table style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-collapse: collapse; border-spacing: 0px; border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.2rem; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 581px;"><tbody style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<tr class="data" style="background: white; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; height: 2.1rem; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Hong Kong - Investors/REITs</strong></td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ticker</strong></td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Rating</strong></td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Share price (HK$)</strong></td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Target price (HK$)</strong></td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">up/down %</strong></td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Market cap (US$bn)</strong></td></tr>
<tr class="data even" style="background: rgb(230, 235, 241); border: 0px; font-size: 12px; height: 2.1rem; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Wharf</strong></td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">0004.HK</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">O</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">55.8</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">69.22</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">24%</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">22</td></tr>
<tr class="data" style="background: white; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; height: 2.1rem; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Swire Properties</strong></td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">1972.HK</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">N</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">25.1</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">28.39</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">13%</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">19</td></tr>
<tr class="data even" style="background: rgb(230, 235, 241); border: 0px; font-size: 12px; height: 2.1rem; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">HKLand (US$)</strong></td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">HKLD.SI</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">O</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">6.9</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">9.09</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">31%</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">16</td></tr>
<tr class="data" style="background: white; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; height: 2.1rem; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">H</strong> <strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">ang Lung</strong></td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">0101.HK</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">N</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">23.2</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">25.54</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">10%</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">13</td></tr>
<tr class="data even" style="background: rgb(230, 235, 241); border: 0px; font-size: 12px; height: 2.1rem; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">L</strong> <strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">ink REIT</strong></td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">0823.HK</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">U</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">48.8</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">39.05</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">-20%</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">14</td></tr>
<tr class="data" style="background: white; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; height: 2.1rem; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Hysan</strong></td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">0014.HK</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">N</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">36.9</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">40.07</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">9%</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">5</td></tr>
<tr class="data even" style="background: rgb(230, 235, 241); border: 0px; font-size: 12px; height: 2.1rem; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Hopewell</strong></td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">0054.HK</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">O</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">27.8</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">35.43</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">27%</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">3</td></tr>
<tr class="data" style="background: white; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; height: 2.1rem; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Champion REIT</strong></td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">2778.HK</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">O</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">3.5</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">4.36</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">24%</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">3</td></tr>
<tr class="data even" style="background: rgb(230, 235, 241); border: 0px; font-size: 12px; height: 2.1rem; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Great Eagle</strong></td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">0041.HK</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">U</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">25.5</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">20.5</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">-20%</td><td align="LEFT" colspan="" id="" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 2px 8px; vertical-align: middle;" valign="top">2</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; clear: left; color: #666666; font-size: 1.2rem; line-height: 1.4em; margin-bottom: 1em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<em style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Source: Credit Suisse estimates</em></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.4em; margin-bottom: 1em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<em style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-size: 15px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">-- Joyce Kwok, Wayne Lee, Kelvin Tam, Jinsong Du (Analysts)</em></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01548621677488929747noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4972453200307686906.post-54011500157383324292014-10-27T13:55:00.001+08:002014-10-27T13:55:34.127+08:00Stability will only return when Hong Kong ends its property tyranny<img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-yCwwavl0dl4/VE3eCmWbFZI/AAAAAAAAATQ/sTDnKNbP4xA/s1600/fc2ce09d89d96d08406c750c7719674d.jpg" width="100%" />
<small>http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1616266/stability-will-only-return-whenhong-kong-ends-its-property?page=all</small>
<br /><br />
Andy Xie says Hong Kong must restructure its property market to help ordinary people - rather than milking them for the benefit of the business elite - if stability is to return
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Sky-high property prices are the root cause of the ongoing social instability in Hong Kong. When the average household would have to put aside all their salary for 10 years to afford to buy the space for a bed - never mind eating and drinking, and other living expenses - or that incomes have grown by only 10 per cent in a decade, where is the hope for ordinary people, especially the young? Unless Hong Kong restructures its property market to serve the people, instead of milking them to the last drop, the city won't see stability again.
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Hong Kong has been run like a medieval city state. A business elite at the top has the dominant voice on how wealth and income are created and distributed. Hong Kong's system encourages people to make money with maximum economic freedom and low taxes.
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Tight land supply adds to the problem - often a result of hoarding by a few of the big boys. The banking system is structured to load people with a mountain of debt, which means people must work even harder to keep their tiny apartment.
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The system worked when incomes were rising rapidly. When China was not fully open up to the world, Hong Kong had plenty of opportunities as a bridge between the two, and could charge a hefty premium for the service. After China joined the World Trade Organisation, those opportunities as a middleman vanished. Taxing people with ever higher property prices couldn't work anymore. But Hong Kong's system didn't adjust to the new reality. The ensuing instability is hurting everyone. The city's ruling elite, through uncontrollable greed, have done themselves in.
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In contrast, Singapore has been run like a proper dictatorship. The system doesn't do stupid things to hurt its ruling class. It focuses its greed on foreigners and distributes the spoils among the people through good public housing, quality education and health care, and a nice pension. Most Hong Kong people seem to like Singapore.
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When you think about it, medieval city states like Florence and Venice flourished using the same policies. They used strong militaries to protect their trade monopolies and, sometimes, just looted others when opportunities arose. Because their ruling elite had the wisdom to distribute the loot among all contributors, their enterprises or scams lasted for centuries. Their luck finally ran out when rising nation states built bigger militaries.
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Both Hong Kong and Singapore are leftovers of the British colonial era. They have enjoyed much higher incomes than their giant neighbours by arbitraging their inefficiencies. The business model is not so different from Venice or Florence centuries ago. As their neighbours change, they must adapt to sustain their income premium. Instead of building ships or making semiconductors, Singapore has switched to casinos and private banking. Maybe these businesses don't smell so good, but they bring in the money to buy social peace.
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Hong Kong hasn't adapted. When the old model doesn't work, the instinct here is to squeeze supply further. When the price is too high, let's carve a flat into several smaller ones. Wouldn't that make housing affordable? Hence, mini-flats have now become popular for speculators. But, even mini-flats are unaffordable. What's next? Should people learn to sleep standing up or hanging upside down?
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The usual excuse against change is that Hong Kong doesn't have land. This is a big lie. Only 4 per cent of Hong Kong's land is given over to residential use. There is the same amount of reserved development land, and big developers hold a considerable chunk of it. Singapore has been developing mainly on reclaimed land. It has a real physical shortage, but has kept public housing cheap and spacious. Land isn't a constraint to Hong Kong's development.
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What stands in the way is Hong Kong's ruling elite, a leftover from the colonial era, hanging onto the old model no matter what. Since they don't have other sources of competitiveness, changing would mean the end to their privileged status. This is why meaningful change won't happen through consultation among the elite. Some force has to impose the change. If Beijing wants stability in Hong Kong, it must focus on property, which means ditching its business friends.
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In addition to artificially controlled land supply, interest rates play a role in the price cycle. But this confuses the debate. The interest rate cycle introduces volatility. So, if the US Federal Reserve raises rates to 3 per cent within three years, Hong Kong's property prices may fall by 50 per cent over that time.
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Yet housing still wouldn't be affordable. When the price begins to fall suddenly, the debate will surely shift, and political support for limiting supply will return. Hong Kong could repeat the cycle.
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Ruling Hong Kong requires a long-term vision, not the zig-zagging we've seen since the handover. During the Asian financial crisis, Hong Kong abandoned its expanded, but still modest, public housing programme, laying the seeds for today's instability. Policy responses now should focus not only on short-term issues.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04005726225577051963noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4972453200307686906.post-62536336791109918752014-10-16T20:24:00.003+08:002014-10-16T20:24:22.076+08:00Hong Kong Home Prices Seen Firm as Volume Drops Amid Protests<small>http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-16/hong-kong-home-prices-seen-firm-as-volume-drops-amid-protests.html</small>
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Hong Kong’s existing home transactions dropped amid pro-democracy protests now in the third week. Prices are holding firm.<br />
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The number of homes changing hands fell about 20 percent so far this month, compared with the same period in September, as buyers and sellers become more cautious, according to Sammy Po, residential chief executive at realtor Midland Holdings Ltd. While some homeowners have been more willing to accept prices cuts of as much as 3 percent since the protests began, most haven’t budged, Po said.<br />
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Home prices, which hit new highs last month, won’t be significantly affected by the political standoff that saw as many as 200,000 protesters occupy Hong Kong’s key roadways, said property broker Savills Plc. Homeowners aren’t in a hurry to offload their properties, even as some potential buyers are deterred by the city’s political uncertainties, according to Citigroup Inc.<br />
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“It’s a normal reaction for people to take a wait-and-see approach,” said Wong Leung-sing, an associate research director at Centaline Property Agency Ltd., Hong Kong’s largest privately held realtor.<br />
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Existing home prices, tracked by Centaline, dropped 0.4 percent in the week ended Oct. 5 after the protests started on Sept. 26. Prices, which declined as much as 5.2 percent since the government doubled a property tax in February last year, have rebounded 7.3 percent this year.<br />
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Forecast Cut<br />
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Protesters are demanding elections of Hong Kong’s chief executive free from the influence of China in 2017. The rally that started outside the government headquarters has spread to main arteries in the city’s main business district and prime shopping areas, and has prompted Bank of America Corp. to cut its economic growth forecast for Hong Kong this year.<br />
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“If it persists and worsens, it will affect people’s livelihood and the economy,” said Midland’s Po. “Then the weakened purchasing power will affect the property market.”<br />
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The chance of the movement seriously disrupting Hong Kong’s economy is slim whereas the probability of rising interest rates is much higher and likely to have a greater impact on housing demand, said Nicole Wong, regional property research head at CLSA Ltd.<br />
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Hong Kong rates track those in the U.S. because the local currency is pegged to the U.S. dollar.<br />
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“The market will likely remain in its current state -- rising prices amid low volume -- until rates increase,” said Wong, who called for home prices to drop 10 percent next year and a further 5 percent in 2016.<br />
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Political Outlook<br />
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Three projects have been offered by developers since the start of the protests, including a 1,092-unit project by New World Development Co. (17) and Henderson Land Development Co. (12) All three have had “decent sell-through rates,” Ken Yeung and Oscar Choi, Citigroup analysts, wrote in an Oct. 14 note.<br />
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The Hang Seng Property Index tracking returns of nine developer stocks, declined 1.9 percent since Sept. 26, compared with the 2.8 percent drop in the benchmark index.<br />
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Developers have lured buyers from the existing home market with discounts and subsidies, narrowing the premium that usually is paid for new flats, since the government slapped on three rounds of taxes aimed to control surging prices. New World, for example, offers as much as a 6 percent cash discount as well as rebates on property taxes at its Pavilia Hill residential development, one subway stop from the prime shopping district of Causeway Bay.<br />
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The protest movement “isn’t particularly germane to prices or volume,” said Simon Smith, senior director of research and consultancy at Savills, citing government measures as the main damper on transactions. “We’ll have to reconsider if the disruptions last considerably longer. As yet, it’s far too early to say.”<br />
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To contact the reporter on this story: Michelle Yun in Hong Kong at myun11@bloomberg.net<br />
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To contact the editors responsible for this story: Andreea Papuc at apapuc1@bloomberg.net Tomoko YamazakiAnonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01548621677488929747noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4972453200307686906.post-29461770478804365692014-10-11T00:30:00.001+08:002014-10-11T00:30:24.928+08:00The end of the Hong Kong 'dream'<img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-1IBC6BlRN3c/VDgJjOL0yHI/AAAAAAAAASU/gj7Of-K6hTo/s1600/2014107101621464734_20.jpg" width="100%" />
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<small>http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2014/10/end-hong-kong-dream-201410592243801352.html</small> <br />
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Students say connections to the mainland have supplanted meritocracy where good jobs and university spots are concerned.<br />
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Hong Kong, China - It used to be a place where anyone who worked hard, excelled in school and possessed an entrepreneurial spirit could rise above their parents' hardship to a better life. That was the Hong Kong dream.<br />
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Today, that dream has become a mirage - where meritocracy is seen to be supplanted by business and political connections, where good jobs and university places are keenly contested by the mainland Chinese. Young people in Hong Kong fear they are losing out as the playing field tilts increasingly towards China.<br />
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The tens of thousands of people protesting on the streets are not just fighting for democratic reform, they are also struggling for their economic survival in the former British territory returned to China in 1997. <br />
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"After 1997, you have to have good connections to get a good job. This is not an equal opportunity society anymore," said 54-year-old Jason Wong, a retired investment banker. "The rich and those in power have a better chance."<br />
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The son of a grocery store worker, Wong said he was able to move up in life through hard work and diligence because "social mobility was still easy during his time".<br />
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"I come from a poor family. During my generation, if you work hard, you can fight all the way to the top and accumulate your own assets. Everyone has an equal chance to fight for what they aim for," said Wong.<br />
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But it is not so now for many in the next generation.<br />
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"It is very difficult to move up now," said 27-year-old Bonnie Chau, a secretary who has been demonstrating since the start of the protests. To get a better salary, Chau is studying for a master's degree in corporate governance by attending night classes at the Chinese University of Hong Kong.<br />
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Cherished dream<br />
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One in five Hong Kong residents, or about 1.3 million people, live under the poverty line, according to government figures. <br />
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In a society where families cram into tiny apartments, owning a home is a cherished dream for many young people. But property prices on Hong Kong island, home to some 1.2 million people, are the third-most-expensive in the world after Monaco and London, according to the Global Property Guide website. <br />
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"When you don't have a good career, a good property, how can you be loyal to this city?" asked Wong.<br />
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Soaring property prices and land shortages, coupled with buying sprees and speculation by rich mainland Chinese, have pushed the cost of an apartment beyond the reach of many here. With starting salaries for new graduates at about $12,000 Hong Kong dollars (US$1,500) a month, it is almost impossible for young people to purchase their own homes.<br />
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"After sending money home to my parents, pay the rent, tuition fees and the high cost of living, I have no money to save for the future," says Chau. "An apartment costs around $7m HK [US$900,000]. How can I buy one? I can't even pay for the deposit."<br />
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The "one country, two systems" formula agreed on when Britain gave control of Hong Kong to China guarantees the region a high degree of autonomy and freedoms not enjoyed in mainland China, with the right of Hong Kongers to choose their leader set as an eventual goal.<br />
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"That is why it is critical for us to be here to fight. We are not seeking independence. We know we are part of China. But we are different from China," said a 24-year-old student who works and studies at the same time. He has ties to the mainland, and asked not to be identified by name. <br />
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"We have an independent judiciary and a free press. We are just asking what was promised to us. If we don't fight, we will become just like another city in China."<br />
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The mainland moves in<br />
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Hong Kong is the world's most service-oriented economy, with the service sector accounting for more than 90 percent of GDP in an economy valued at US$272.5bn in 2013, according to the Hong Kong Trade Development Council.<br />
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Since Hong Kong returned to China in 1997, many mainland Chinese companies have listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. <br />
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A total of 1,716 companies are listed on Hong Kong's mainboard - Asia's second-largest - and the Growth Market Enterprise, an alternative stock market. Of these, 854, or 49.8 percent, are mainland Chinese companies.<br />
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Willy Wo-lap Lam, a China scholar at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, told Al Jazeera that mainland businesses were slowly pushing out Hong Kong businesses.<br />
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"This is happening gradually but relentlessly," says Lam. "So they are gradually controlling the economy and they are edging out the local companies. Within 10 to 20 years, it will be totally dominated by PRC [People's Republic of China] companies."<br />
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Al Jazeera contacted the Chinese General Chamber of Commerce and pro-business The Better Hong Kong Foundation for comment, but received no response. <br />
Many students Al Jazeera talked to said it is difficult to get a good job with companies based on China's mainland.<br />
"Employment for Hong Kong youngsters is getting more difficult. These mainland companies keep exporting elites from China to Hong Kong to work," said a 21-year-old student, who requested anonymity because his parents are civil servants and he did not want reprisals against them.<br />
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"We know the door is shutting on us. It is so clear for us to see."Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04005726225577051963noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4972453200307686906.post-75179811109802912522014-09-13T15:42:00.001+08:002014-09-13T15:42:50.917+08:00Demand for small flats drives Hong Kong market to new high<img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3oMy1dOmXELmFNgqYdK13dw7tEHNjdc24bmPCOLgbDn1DTJwkJMJ75XhNedn-D3bVXW_dLT7oCQQObDpFcWuxamqWjQ6USDJnGNGJCHFPfk3VZ2bBDRYy1EQIXlH911-F1pj_QKcKn_az/s1600/5c22c24de421eaabc43590c478c2734.jpg" width="100%" />
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<small>http://www.scmp.com/property/hong-kong-china/article/1585833/hong-kong-property-rent-prices-hit-record-july?page=all</small>
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Strong demand for small flats helped push Hong Kong property prices to a fresh high for the third consecutive month in July, with analysts expecting gains to continue in the coming months.
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The Rating and Valuation Department's monthly price index for private homes climbed to a record 255.6 in July, 2.2 per cent higher than in June.
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It cost an average of HK$5.06 million to buy a 431-square-foot flat on Hong Kong Island in July, compared with HK$4.9 million in March. A flat of that size in Kowloon fetched HK$4.18 million, some 8.8 per cent higher than HK$3.84 million in March.
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In the New Territories the average price of a flat of that size rose to HK$3.7 million from HK$3.4 million in March.
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The rental index rose to 157.7 in July, 0.32 per cent higher than the previous peak of 157.2 set in November last year.
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"Property price growth may continue until the end of October or November," independent economist Kwan Cheuk-chiu said. "The government should release a new round of cooling measures in the property market. Otherwise, prices will continue to go up and the property bubble will burst."
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The new round of property price rises has been driven by interest in small flats.
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The prices of flats smaller than 430 sq ft gained the most in July, with a month-on-month increase of 2.5 per cent. The increase for flats ranging from 431 to 752 sq ft was 2.3 per cent, while flats of 753 to 1,075 sq ft went up 0.89 per cent.
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The rental market for smaller flats was also strong. A 35-year-old, 311 sq ft fully furnished unit in Lockhart House, close to Causeway Bay MTR station, is being offered at HK$15,800 a month, or HK$50.80 per sq ft.
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That is on a par with a studio flat in central London or a one-bedroom flat in New York's Upper East Side, according to property search engines.
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"Rents are going up fast, particularly for small units as they are targeting young professionals," said an agent at Fook Tin Property Agency.
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The Centa-City leading index showed that property prices on Hong Kong Island and in New Territories East hit new records for the week of August 25 to 31, after prices in Kowloon and New Territories West hit record highs the previous week.
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Prices have also been given a boost since the government eased some of the terms of its doubling of stamp duty in June.
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"It was good that the government revised the terms," Kwan said.
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"However, it gave a wrong signal to the market that the government will probably relax cooling measures instead of introducing new measures."Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01548621677488929747noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4972453200307686906.post-197187309312003012014-08-25T14:28:00.002+08:002014-08-25T14:28:33.756+08:00Why property is Hong Kong's national sport<img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-InMqvVkMW3Q/U_rXdDNpEuI/AAAAAAAAAQA/WvRHRn6jex4/s1600/101928609-453415414.530x298.jpg" width="100%" />
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<small>Bernie Lo | @cnbcbernie | http://www.cnbc.com/id/101928585</small>
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"14 Years To Buy a Flat!" the newspaper headline screamed after the Chinese University of Hong Kong's housing affordability index hit an all-time low. In 2002, a household would need 5 years' savings to buy a modest 40 square meter flat, the survey showed; today they would need 14 years' savings.
Hong Kong consistently ranks among the world's most expensive property markets. A series of policy decisions since the 1980s illustrates why Hong Kong was headed down this path from the start.
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<b>Pegged for trouble</b>
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The modern functioning real estate market only dates back to 1983, when the Government pressured banks into introducing long-term mortgage financing instruments. Before that no true mortgages existed, only short-term funding of 3-5 years. 1983 was also the year the Hong Kong dollar came under tremendous speculative attack and the administration opted to peg it to the U.S. dollar. The peg, which still exists, contributed to massive volatility over that period.
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The peg has meant that Hong Kong has no independent monetary policy. It is hostage to the U.S. Federal Reserve; the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has no control over interest rates. At many times, the prevailing rates here have been at great odds with what is needed. For instance, while the U.S. economy may be soft and need low rates, Hong Kong could be bursting with economic activity and because of the peg, experiencing an inordinately low rate environment.
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Read More <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/101893488">Hong Kong to launch gateway to China stock market</a>
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In 1990 the U.S. entered a recession and interest rates were cut; this conversely boosted asset prices in Hong Kong whose economy was fine, and property prices began a multi-year climb. By the mid-90's, to make sure confidence was high ahead of the 1997 handover, money poured in from China and much of it found its way into real estate. By the time the handover arrived, Hong Kong's property market had skyrocketed; an average 115 percent of household income was paying for housing, clearly an unsustainable situation.
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Then Thailand devalued its currency and the Asian Financial Crisis raged – currencies crashed, markets careened. Other countries could adjust and cut rates as needed, but Hong Kong, tethered by the peg, was choked. Interest rates could not be adjusted downward. Within a year and a half, property prices had crashed by 45 percent. Subsequent years brought some relief, but then SARS turned Hong Kong into a ghost town in 2003, and prices resumed their descent, now down 60 percent from their all-time highs in 1997.
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<b>Easy money boost</b>
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What goes down will come up though, and later, U.S. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's free and easy money policy was a booster injection for property. Mortgage rates hit lows well below 1 percent during the quantitative easing (QE) process, and even now are only at around 2.5 percent. Many blamed an influx of Chinese money for pumping up prices, but Chinese buyers have never accounted for more than around a tenth of total sales. Furthermore, they focused on the extreme luxury segment of the market.
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The government, sensing creeping public outrage, resorted to draconian measures a couple years ago, including doubling the stamp duty (property transaction tax) on many buyers, mainly non-Permanent residents, in order to cool the market, and raised the down payment requirements, in some cases to 60 percent of the sales price. Transaction volumes fell by two-thirds. But prices have only eased about 5 percent.
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Activity in recent months has picked up again, as developers learned that by discounting prices in order to compensate for higher down payments and stamp duties, there was plenty of pent-up demand. You now regularly see surveys and studies showing the property market frothier than it ever was even in the go-go days of the late 90's.
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Read More <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/101862232">Is China property done dirt cheap?</a>
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There are many unknowns: when will the Fed actually begin raising rates again after shutting QE, and how will an expected slowdown in the Chinese economy impact HK?
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There's also one overhang that cannot be overlooked that dates from the Shek Kip Mei fire of 1953 which destroyed massive shantytowns of mostly Chinese immigrants. The British governor at the time decided to embark on a massive construction program to rehouse those left homeless and marked the beginning of Hong Kong's public housing experiment. Since that time, government-provided rental and subsidized purchase property has come to comprise nearly 50 percent of total housing stock, meaning the government is landlord to half of Hong Kong, leaving the other half to fight it out in the private market. Simple economics tells you that a synthetically shrunken supply will only lead to higher prices.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04005726225577051963noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4972453200307686906.post-38243426371790808922014-08-02T00:32:00.003+08:002014-08-02T00:32:51.223+08:00Hong Kong Popping Housing Bubbles London Can’t Handle<small>http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-29/singapore-popping-housing-bubbles-london-can-t-handle.html</small><br />
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Take a look at the world’s dizzying surges in the price of housing for 12 months at the end of June: London, up 20 percent. Manhattan, 18 percent. Sydney, 15.4 percent.<br />
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Then there are Singapore and Hong Kong: down 3.7 percent and 0.6 percent.<br />
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Prompted by concerns over potential property bubbles and affordability for the middle class, the governments of the two Asian cities have been reining in home prices by imposing measures including mortgage caps, taxes on property flippers, and levies on foreign buyers as high as 15 percent.<br />
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“Hong Kong has successfully cooled down the market in terms of transactions and turnover,” said Raymond Yeung, senior economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Hong Kong. “Singapore has been more effective.”<br />
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So could New York, London and other global cities facing soaring housing prices pull off the same act?<br />
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Not really. Hong Kong and Singapore’s island geographies, preponderance of public housing resulting in two-tier housing markets and citizens willing to tolerate government directives make the cities unique, according to academics and researchers. London and New York have nowhere near the same level of control over their economies and the behavior of their residents.<br />
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<b>Having Clout</b><br />
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Singapore and Hong Kong, as a special administrative region of China, have governments with policy-making power over their entire geographic areas, where they are relatively free of political opposition from neighborhood groups or borough councils that stymie directives or mitigate their effectiveness. The Asian cities control the land supply and are the biggest landlords.<br />
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That allows them to implement decisive policy measures. For example, in January 2013, the Monetary Authority of Singapore, effectively the central bank and chief regulator, cut the mortgage ratio allowable on purchases of second homes while more than doubling minimum down payments from 10 percent to 25 percent. The banks had no choice but to follow.<br />
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“Imagine doing something like this in the U.S. where there are 7,000 banks and many regulators,” said Sumit Agarwal, a professor in economics, finance and real estate at the National University of Singapore. “It’s a nightmare from the policy point of view and would be impossible.”<br />
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Hong Kong and Singapore haven’t shied away from using taxes to discriminate against foreign buyers -- something other locales with surging prices have yet to do. Non-permanent residents in both cities are subject to an additional 15 percent tax when they buy property, except in Singapore where Americans are exempted by treaty.<br />
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<b>Free-Market</b><br />
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While such actions may seem contradictory to the cities’ stated free-market principles, “affordable housing is part of the legitimacy of any government, and government has a role to play in intervening in the market in periods where there are extreme circumstances,” said Michael Klibaner, who heads Greater China research at real estate firm Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. in Hong Kong.<br />
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The U.K. government has tried some measures. After it increased the stamp duty to 7 percent on high-value properties in March 2012, price increases for homes valued from 5 million pounds to 10 million pounds ($8.5 million to $17 million) slowed from 9.7 percent to 5.8 percent in the subsequent year, according to broker Knight Frank LLP.<br />
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Bank of England Governor Mark Carney announced another set of measures last month, citing concerns over household indebtedness and the threat of a property bubble. They limit mortgages to less than 4.5 times a borrowers’ annual income and require banks to refuse loans to those failing to prove they could afford a 3 percentage-point rise in interest rates.<br />
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<b>Stagnant Prices</b><br />
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They may be working. Prices in the capital stagnated in July, the first month with no growth since December 2012.<br />
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Meanwhile, the opposition Labour Party has backed away from a call for a flat tax on properties worth more than 2 million pounds, instead suggesting taxes that rise the more expensive a property is, if they win next year’s U.K. national election.<br />
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Labour’s Treasury spokesman, Ed Balls, writing in the London Evening Standard newspaper, suggested a lower band for homes valued at between 2 million pounds and 5 million pounds. Further bands would go up to 10 million pounds and 20 million pounds, with the top rate levied on properties above 20 million pounds. The thresholds would increase in line with average house prices.<br />
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Least likely to be deterred are well-heeled buyers from Russia, the Middle East and Asia looking to park their money in tony London neighborhoods, the ones who have helped drive up the prices, said Matthew Pointon, a property economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London.<br />
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“Wealthy people who buy these houses just pay it,” said Pointon, adding that the government isn’t interested in discouraging the influx of money. “The government is always very keen to portray London as open for business to the world.”<br />
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<b>Preferential Treatment</b><br />
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Foreigners in Britain enjoy preferential tax treatment over locals, as they are currently exempt from paying capital gains. This benefit will cease when new legislation takes effect in April bringing the U.K. into line with the U.S. and Australia which charge capital gains on non-residents. (Hong Kong has no capital gains tax while Singapore taxes non- residents.)<br />
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In Australia, foreigners bought a record 14 percent of new properties in the first three months of the year, based on a survey of property professionals by National Australia Bank Ltd.<br />
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In New York, there’s not much likelihood of foreign buyers facing additional costs, said Jones Lang LaSalle’s Klibaner, a native New Yorker.<br />
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“If you live in Manhattan, you aren’t going to blame the government for bad policies or become a xenophobe because too many rich Chinese and Russians are buying apartments on Central Park,” he said. “When you want to get on the property ladder, you start in Queens or Brooklyn or New Jersey.”<br />
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<b>Election Issue</b><br />
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Still, affordability is very much on middle-class voters’ minds. New York Mayor Bill de Blasio, a self-described progressive who took office in January on a promise of creating more homes New Yorkers can afford, unveiled a plan in May to try to do it.<br />
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“This is the first local election in a long time where housing affordability came to the forefront,” said Christopher Mayer, Paul Milstein Professor of Real Estate, Finance and Economics at New York’s Columbia Business School. “This is going to happen in more places.”<br />
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The dominance of the private sector in the housing markets of New York and London also leaves them with less leverage than their counterparts in Asia. More than 80 percent of Singapore residents live in government-built flats, according to the website of the city’s Housing & Development Board.<br />
<br />
Of those living in Singapore’s public housing, more than 90 percent own their apartments, the result of government policy promoting home ownership through a combination of cheap loans, housing grants and a program that allows buyers to use accumulated government pension contributions for purchases.<br />
<br />
Public housing doesn’t carry a stigma in Singapore, where most is located in master-planned towns, with schools, sports and medical facilities in landscaped surroundings.<br />
<br />
<b>Laissez-Faire</b><br />
<br />
While Hong Kong may rank No. 1 on the Cato Institute’s global ranking of free economies, its housing policy is anything but laissez-faire. The government auctions its land to developers to trickle out new housing stock when it wants to increase supply. It also owns 76 percent of MTR Corp. (66), the subway operator that is one of the city’s biggest property developers.<br />
<br />
“Supply is so limited in both cities, the government is all powerful when it comes to land issues,” said Eddie Hui, a real estate professor at Hong Kong Polytechnic University. “They can be more heavy-handed.”<br />
<br />
<b>Foreign Suburbs</b><br />
<br />
Singapore is about two-thirds the size of New York City, and Hong Kong is about 30 percent bigger. Unlike Manhattan, where residents can move to cheaper boroughs or nearby states, the far-flung suburbs of Singapore and Hong Kong are in other countries beyond their borders. (Some Singaporeans have bought homes in neighboring Malaysia, which requires a passport-control stop and a two-hour drive when traffic is heavy to reach the business district.)<br />
<br />
“In Hong Kong and Singapore there’s nowhere else to go, so regulation is almost essential if you have a fixed supply of land,” said Columbia’s Mayer.<br />
<br />
Singapore began introducing curbs in 2009 after home prices climbed 25 percent in two years through 2008. It stepped up with stricter measures in 2013, including a cap on mortgage payments at 60 percent of a borrower’s monthly income, higher stamp duties and an increase in real estate taxes.<br />
<br />
In 2009, when property prices were plunging across the U.S., Hong Kong’s housing market was going into overdrive. A combination of record-low interest rates, a lack of alternative desirable investments due to a lackluster stock market and a flood of mainland buyers plunking down cash for properties sent prices soaring.<br />
<br />
<b>Chinese Buyers</b><br />
<br />
Hong Kong began introducing a string of progressively stronger measures starting in November 2010, including a flip tax of 15 percent on properties resold within six months, and a doubling of stamp duties to 8.5 percent on properties worth HK$20 million ($2.6 million) or more.<br />
<br />
It also slapped a 15 percent tax on purchases of homes by non-local buyers and companies, a policy aimed to deter mainland Chinese buyers whom many Hong Kong residents blamed for soaring prices.<br />
<br />
After climbing 115 percent since January 2008, prices started dropping in the second quarter of 2013. The share of mainland buyers of luxury properties, defined as homes worth more than HK$12 million, fell from 34 percent in the third quarter of 2012 to 13 percent a year later, according to research by Centaline Property Agency in Hong Kong.<br />
<br />
<b>Least Affordable</b><br />
<br />
Still, prices on Hong Kong island, roughly the size of Manhattan where about 1.2 million people live, are the third-most expensive in the world after Monaco and London, at $1,920 per square foot, according to the Global Property Guide website. While housing costs about half as much in the northernmost New Territories, where more than half of Hong Kong’s 7.2 million residents live, prices there rose 140 percent from 2008 through 2012.<br />
<br />
For all Hong Kong’s successes, it remains the world’s most-unaffordable housing market, with a median home price 14.9 times gross annual median household income, according to a survey released in January by Demographia, a consulting firm in Belleville, Illinois. Singapore was given the survey’s highest rank, “severely unaffordable,” while Knight Frank’s annual wealth report placed it as No. 2 most-unaffordable in the world.<br />
<br />
Singapore’s correction looks set to continue. After prices slid for a third consecutive quarter to June, Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam this month predicted further declines.<br />
<br />
<b>Less Bearish</b><br />
<br />
In Hong Kong, analysts are revising previously bearish forecasts. JPMorgan & Chase Co. in a June 4 report predicts a further 5 percent drop in secondary home prices this year compared with an earlier forecast of a 20 percent decline. Citigroup Inc. said June 3 it expects prices of mass-market homes to stay flat.<br />
<br />
Things may be picking up. Prices have climbed about 4 percent in the seven weeks since the beginning of June, according to Centaline.<br />
<br />
The slump in Hong Kong housing prices may be illusory because transactions have all but dried up as buyers wait on the sidelines for recovery, says ANZ’s Yeung.<br />
<br />
“It looks effective on the surface, but this is only depressed demand,” he said.<br />
<br />
Meanwhile, the government is taking measures to increase supply. In January, it announced a policy target of 470,000 additional housing units over 10 years for both public and private housing.<br />
<br />
Hong Kong isn’t entirely without resistance. In June, an angry mob forced its way into the Legislative Council to protest a plan to relocate villages to make way for high rises.<br />
<br />
“Governments in Hong Kong or the U.K. or China all have the same dilemma,” said Hui, the Hong Kong Polytechnic professor. “Home prices are high, and we all know we have to do something. But when they announce measures against our interests we tell them to do it in someone else’s backyard.”<br />
<br />
Ultimately, markets may play a greater role in solving the problem of rising prices once global interest rates start rising. At that time, said ANZ’s Yeung, “the global housing bubble, or boom, will come to an end.”Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01548621677488929747noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4972453200307686906.post-25523134103435744862014-07-21T20:40:00.001+08:002014-07-21T20:40:12.319+08:00Hong Kong homebuyers warned 'don't rush into the market - it's heating up'<small>http://www.scmp.com/property/hong-kong-china/article/1556868/homebuyers-warned-dont-rush-market</small>
<br><br>
The city's finance chief has warned prospective homebuyers to be aware of the market risks amid signs the lower end of the housing market is picking up.
<br><br>
Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah said there were indications the market was "heating up", especially for low-cost homes - those in the region of HK$4 million. He was worried about buyers rushing in without considering long-term affordability and a potential rise in interest rates.
<br><br>
"I am particularly concerned about the buyers in this [low-cost] market," Tsang wrote in his weekly blog posting yesterday. "Once [the trend] in the property market starts to reverse, the ability of buyers to withstand [the impact] is generally quite weak."
<br><br>
Tsang urged homebuyers to keep an eye on prices and interest rates - and consider their own ability to buy - before they made the decision to enter the market.
<br><br>
His remarks came just days after lawmakers passed a bill to double the stamp duty on property purchases of HK$2 million or more, up to a ceiling of 8.5 per cent. Buyers have been paying the duty since February last year.
<br><br>
DON'T MISS: China's rich are less likely to keep business in the family – unlike Hong Kong’s wealthy
<br><br>
Midland Holdings managing director Pierre Wong Tsz-wa said government cooling measures had raised transaction costs and the supply of low-cost homes had halved recently.
<br><br>
"But demand, most of which is coming from younger buyers in the first-time buyer market, usually doesn't fall in the summertime," Wong said. "Most have never bought a flat before and are entering the market, sometimes with the help of parents."
<br><br>
Tsang said seeing the stamp duty bill pass just before the Legislative Council summer recess had "taken a load off his mind". "The double stamp duty has effectively controlled property market risk … it has wide public recognition and, in Legco, bipartisan support," he said.
<br><br>
But Tsang said he opposed an amendment to the bill which was passed by lawmakers. It exempts from the double stamp duty public housing tenants who are not permanent residents and want to buy the flat they live in under the Tenants Purchase Scheme.
<br><br>
"The government does not agree with the amendment in principle as it only involves a few dozen non-permanent residents," Tsang wrote.
<br><br>
Democratic Party lawmaker Wu Chi-wai, who put forward the amendment, said double stamp duty would have a "huge impact" on these buyers.
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01548621677488929747noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4972453200307686906.post-72116578765200250442014-06-14T03:14:00.003+08:002014-06-14T03:14:36.616+08:00Hong Kong property cooling measures won’t ease ‘until US interest rates rise’<small>http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/article/1515911/us-interest-rate-rises-big-factor-when-relax-property-market-curbs?page=all</small><br />
<br />
Financial services chief says Fed interest rate hikes a big factor in how long property market cooling measures such as 15pc levy remain<br />
<br />
Investors should not expect any easing of measures to cool the property market until a rise in US interest rates.<br />
<br />
That was the message yesterday from Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Chan Ka-keung.<br />
<br />
He described the stamp duties designed to hold back real estate speculation as "extraordinary measures for extraordinary times".<br />
<br />
And he said: "Clearly, this is not a time for unwinding."<br />
<br />
When pushed on the question of whether the end of quantitative easing and a hike in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve would be the earliest point at which Hong Kong would roll back stamp duties designed to dampen rampant real estate speculation, he added: "I don't want to say this single factor will trigger the unwinding, but clearly that will be one of the major factors."<br />
<br />
Chan was speaking during a wide-ranging, hour-long interview with the South China Morning Post in the government offices complex at Tamar, in which he described how the administration had attempted to cool demand in the property market.<br />
<br />
The government imposed three measures in stages in 2012 and 2013 to counter the impact of super-easy monetary policy in the US and elsewhere that led to cash, often from abroad, being injected into the city's property market after the cost of funding in US dollars - to which Hong Kong's currency is pegged - fell to zero in 2009.<br />
<br />
Average home prices across the city have risen 125 per cent since then, according to government data, pushing them far out of the reach of average Hongkongers, who complain that salaries have remained largely static in comparison.<br />
<br />
The cooling measures include a 15 per cent levy on non-permanent resident and corporate property buyers, an expansion of stamp duties on quick resales of property and a doubling of duties on all properties costing more than HK$2 million, with exemptions for permanent residents who are first-time buyers or sell their only home to buy another.<br />
<br />
They have held prices broadly in check, but there is little evidence of a meaningful retreat, despite developers saying they have been forced into giving discounts in the face of softening demand.<br />
<br />
"The low-interest-rate environment is still here, so we've got to be very careful," Chan insisted.<br />
<br />
Economists widely believe that US interest rates will not rise before June or July next year, with Fed policymakers still nurturing a delicate recovery from the massive downturn that followed the 2008-09 global financial crisis.<br />
<br />
Meanwhile, investors awaiting the arrival of the Hong Kong-Shanghai "through train" scheme to allow seamless stock trading access between the two financial centres should expect it to begin on schedule in late autumn.<br />
<br />
Chan was confident in sticking to the likely mid-October start date for the scheme, despite a number of key issues remaining unresolved.<br />
<br />
They include the availability of investor access to sufficient quantities of yuan, regulatory enforcement and quota limits.<br />
<br />
"We're still early, but we are working towards that deadline," Chan said. He refused to speculate on when the scheme might cover other asset classes, though he expressed interest in the logic of commodities given Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing's ownership of the London Metal Exchange.<br />
<br />
Chan said the "through train" was indicative of the role Hong Kong would likely play in facilitating financial reform on the mainland.<br />
<br />
"This particular mechanism for opening up is quite easy to implement for China," Chan said. "You don't have to do a lot of regulatory overhaul internally, because you just open up and link to Hong Kong.<br />
<br />
"That is fundamental."<br />
<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01548621677488929747noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4972453200307686906.post-50709689325255704482014-06-07T04:02:00.002+08:002014-06-07T04:02:34.970+08:00Home Decoration Interior Designer<p>Jun Long <a href="http://www.junlong.com.hk">Interior Decoration</a>, a professional home decoration and interior designer Joe Lee leads the Hong Kong interior design team, formerly known as JunLong Interior Design Engineering ( Hong Kong ) Company . Jun Long interior decoration for residential and office space and other commercial interior design focus has always been people -oriented , rather than focus only on the beautiful space just gorgeous . Whether simply home design / interior design / decoration office design or will contain , communication design and concept analysis conditions , communicate design concepts of the initial idea , space planning , color suggestions and other building materials , able to use our expertise to consistent with the scientific and humane method to achieve the configuration preferences and needs of the guests ,Taking into account the design sense and practicality, proper planning and use storage space . In addition, the more the different needs of every guest needs and the use of open and intimate space of time for considering the suitability of building materials and life, taking into account the cost of the spread and the best construction method to improve the quality of construction , so guests with the most reasonable cost to complete the best satisfaction.
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01548621677488929747noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4972453200307686906.post-72921947010572727212014-05-19T05:11:00.002+08:002014-05-19T05:11:51.996+08:00Property transactions decline despite Hong Kong stamp duty reform<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuYPjh4sKODliRnwx-DrzznGzbCL6vhmrHomoVlYDVaenahvUrgWdv-m-cD_ICpTL4H1VxIzzP3VtlVDH22LpyMt9JHAbOgPMA4NBwNwe61kpgX4HYZLBbLOvL-pRYNBHmoEGiUhPP40Uo/s1600/c4328231dcbea535a646118b25a102e4.jpg" imageanchor="1" ><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuYPjh4sKODliRnwx-DrzznGzbCL6vhmrHomoVlYDVaenahvUrgWdv-m-cD_ICpTL4H1VxIzzP3VtlVDH22LpyMt9JHAbOgPMA4NBwNwe61kpgX4HYZLBbLOvL-pRYNBHmoEGiUhPP40Uo/s320/c4328231dcbea535a646118b25a102e4.jpg" /></a>
<br>
<small>This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as Deals fall despite stamp duty reform | http://www.scmp.com/property/hong-kong-china/article/1515199/property-transactions-decline-despite-hong-kong-stamp-duty</small>
<br><br>
On the first weekend after the government announced the relaxation of double stamp duty, the number of major property transactions fell, but the amount of buyer interest rose significantly, said Hong Kong property agents.
<br><br>
The 10 biggest estates of each of the four leading property agencies saw a total of 57 property transactions in the past weekend, slightly less than the 61 transactions of the preceding weekend.
<br><br>
The four leading agencies are Hong Kong Property Services (Agency), Ricacorp Properties, Midland Realty and Centaline Property.
<br><br>
"In recent days, the Hong Kong government announced a relaxation of double stamp duty, which had a positive effect on the market," Hong Kong Property senior executive director Jeffrey Ng Chong-yip said.
<br><br>
"The number of property viewers has risen 20 to 30 per cent generally throughout the estates [on a weekly basis].
<br><br>
"Although in the short term property supply has shrunk, causing the second-hand market to stagnate, the relaxation of double stamp duty will spur the interest of clients to sell their old property for new ones."
<br><br>
Hong Kong Property handled seven transactions in the 10 main estates at the weekend, against 11 in the previous weekend.
<br><br>
Early last year, the government introduced double stamp duty in an attempt to cool the property market. Under this double stamp duty, buyers of properties costing more than HK$2 million would incur stamp duty at rates that are at least double those that previously applied unless they were permanent residents buying their first homes.
<br><br>
Last week, the government announced the double stamp duty would be relaxed in certain cases, to make it easier for residents to upgrade their flats. Residents moving up the property ladder will no longer have to pay a double stamp duty if their old unit is sold within six months of signing a formal agreement to buy the new property.
<br><br>
"In the first weekend after the government suggested relaxation of double stamp duty, the second-hand market had a slight rebound," Midland director Sammy Po Siu-ming said.
<br><br>
Midland handled 17 transactions in the 10 biggest estates last weekend, a slight increase from 16 transactions in the previous weekend. Ricacorp saw a drop in transactions in the 10 biggest estates to 15 in the past weekend from 16 in the previous weekend.
<br><br>
"The second-hand market fell, mainly because the landlords' attitude to price has hardened, while residents were not willing to enter the market at any price, causing a stalemate between both sides over price," said Ricacorp president Liao Weiqiang.
<br><br>
Centaline handled 18 transactions in the 10 biggest estates last weekend, the same as the previous weekend.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01548621677488929747noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4972453200307686906.post-43553096228022957852014-05-10T15:34:00.001+08:002014-05-10T15:35:12.130+08:00Interior Decoration : Shum Wan Road Housing<img src="http://www.junlong.com.hk/img/Project/ShumWanRaod-Housing/Tmp%20(2).jpg" width="100%" alt="">
<img src="http://www.junlong.com.hk/img/Project/ShumWanRaod-Housing/Tmp%20(5).jpg" width="100%" alt="">
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<a href="http://www.junlong.com.hk/zh/interior-decoration-ShumWanRoad-Housing.html">家居設計 深灣道 | 香港島</a>
私人住宅裝修<a href="http://www.junlong.com.hk/zh/">家居設計</a> · 裝修完成時間: 2011
<br><br>
With a land area of only 1,076 km2 and a population of over six million people, Hong Kong is one of the most densely populated places in the world. In addition, the topography of Hong Kong is rugged. In view of limited flat land area in Hong Kong, intensive urbanization of the lower portions of hillslopes in many parts of the territory has been the only feasible approach to cope with the needs of continuing development. The development of roads and buildings often necessitates numerous hillside cuttings and embankments. The stability of these man-made slopes is of prime concern as the impact on the community can be tremendous in the event of slope failure. Failure of these cuts and embankments often simply causes traffic delays, however, more serious landslides may overwhelm inhabited downslope areas with debris avalanches, slumps and falling boulders.
<br><br>
Of the contributing factors associated with the occurrence of landslides, water pressure is frequently the major. In Hong Kong most landslides are rain-induced, rainfall is high but seasonal, averaging about 2000 mm during the summer months when Hong Kong is frequently threatened by troughs of low pressure and tropical cyclones. Disastrous landslides associated with heavy rainfall include the following; Sau Mau Ping Resettlement Estate 1972, Po Shan Road in 1972, Kwun Lung Lau in 1994, Fei Tsui Road 1995 and Shum Wan Road in 1995.
<br><br>
The Shum Wan Road Landslide in Aberdeen is the largest landslide to have occurred in Hong Kong since 1976. It involved two distinct slides that occurred almost simultaneously. A minor failure of the fill embankment occurred below a passing bay on Nam Long Shan Road which triggered a major landslide at a hillside between Shum Wan Road and Nam Long Shan Road. In this study various aspects of the landslide and subsequent slope rehabilitation works are presented.
<hr>
JL <a href="http://www.junlong.com.hk">Interior Decoration</a> | <a href="http://www.junlong.com.hk/en/">Home Decoration</a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01548621677488929747noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4972453200307686906.post-84454570125249125882013-07-30T12:58:00.001+08:002013-07-30T12:58:28.449+08:00Property agents in Hong Kong hit hard引用: <a href="http://www.channelnewsasia.com/">http://www.channelnewsasia.com</a><br />
<br />
HONG KONG: Thousands took to the streets earlier in Hong Kong this month to protest against the government's recent <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong Property</a> tax hikes.<br />
<br />
Made up mainly of <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong Property</a> gents and disgruntled home-buyers, they are angry at the government for doubling the stamp duty on <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong Property</a> transactions since February to around 5.5 per cent.<br />
<br />
Protest organiser Raymond Ho argued the cooling measures are hitting the innocent.<br />
<br />
Ho said: "Some middle-class have a dream to live in one apartment and one for rent. They can handle their retirement if they have one flat for living and one for rent, but those stamp duty policies just freeze the volume of <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong Property</a> market and at the same time, freeze the social mobility of Hong Kong people."<br />
<br />
Latest official data shows in the month of June, transactions in the city have fallen by 12.5 per cent, with fewer than 3,500 transactions completed. Total value of sales is down 22 per cent.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong Property</a> agent, Angus Or, has witnessed an even more drastic drop in transactions in the new town of Tseung Kwan O, built on reclaimed land along the bay, northeast of Hong Kong island.<br />
<br />
His commission income has dropped by 70 per cent since the new levies were introduced.<br />
<br />
"Usually in this area, there are about 600-700 transactions per month for buying and selling in total. Nowadays, there are only around 70 transactions for buying and selling alone," said Or.<br />
<br />
Mass market estates, like Tseung Kwan O are in demand, because of tight supply in the market. Many home owners are now pulling back from selling their units.<br />
<br />
Three years ago, a 684-square-foot apartment in the area cost around US$774,000. Today, the owner is asking for just over US$1 million.<br />
<br />
"There has been no drop in prices. Most of the owners in this area have paid off their mortgages. When they bought the flat, it is only around HK$2 million and after 10 years, they have paid off their mortgages. They don't have a hurry to sell," explained Or.<br />
<br />
Buyers, in the meantime, are in no hurry to commit either.<br />
<br />
They anticipate prices to fall further down the road. The government has committed to significantly increase housing supply in the next three to five years. By then, the US Federal Reserve would have raised its benchmark interest rates. This means mortgage rates in Hong Kong will follow suit as the Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the US dollar.<br />
<br />
Meantime, the pickings continue to be slim for agents like Angus.<br />
<br />
And if the situation persists, industry insiders predict that up to two-thirds of <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong Property</a> gents in the territory could be out of work.<br />
<div>
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<h3>
<span style="font-size: small;">Click Property Agency Limited : <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong Property </a>| <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong Office </a>| <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong Real Estate Agency</a></span></h3>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04005726225577051963noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4972453200307686906.post-70393938419915465892013-07-22T12:06:00.000+08:002013-07-22T12:06:02.298+08:00CORRECTED-China shares slip on growth concerns, Hong Kong weaker too引用: <a href="http://in.reuters.com/">http://in.reuters.com/</a><br />
<br />
HONG KONG, July 16 (Reuters) - China shares slid on Tuesday, weighing on Hong Kong as both markets traded narrowly, with financial and <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong Property</a> stocks dampened by an official news report saying quarterly or annual growth of below 7 percent was acceptable.<br />
<br />
By midday, the CSI300 of the leading Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listings was down 0.6 percent, while the Shanghai Composite Index shed 0.7 percent. Both stayed in the same 60-point range for a third session.<br />
<br />
The Hang Seng Index was down 0.1 percent at 21,287.4, while the China Enterprises Index of the top Chinese listings in Hong Kong slipped 0.2 percent as turnover stayed anemic.<br />
<br />
"If it's true that 7 percent is the new base economic growth case, then it would greatly diminish chances that Beijing will even move to support the economy and this is a negative for the market," said Cao Xuefeng, a Chengdu-based analyst with Huaxi Securities.<br />
<br />
The official China Securities Journal reported on Tuesday in a front page editorial that quarterly or annual economic growth rates of below 7 percent would not affect China's long-term goal of structural adjustment.<br />
<br />
This comes a day after data showed the world's second-largest economy grew 7.5 percent in the second quarter, a figure broadly in line with China's official annual growth target.<br />
<br />
The mainland's press also reported that the economy was likely to dominate the State Council's regular Wednesday meeting. Traders said there was some speculation that China's cabinet could unveil some policy announcements after that.<br />
<br />
China Minsheng Bank fell 1.3 percent in Shanghai and 0.3 percent in Hong Kong. The country's second-largest lender China Construction Bank (CCB) shed 0.7 percent in Hong Kong.<br />
<br />
Chinese <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong Property</a> and construction-related sectors were hurt by more reports in the mainland press about the possibility of the eastern city of Hangzhou starting a <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong Property</a> tax trial, after Shanghai and Chongqing.<br />
<br />
China Vanke, the country's largest <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong Property</a> developer by sales, tumbled 2.2 percent in Shenzhen. Poly Real Estate fell 2.6 percent in Shanghai, leading the Shanghai <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong Property</a> sub-index down 2.2 percent.<br />
<br />
Vanke Properties Overseas, due to report interim earnings on Friday, fell 3 percent in Hong Kong.<br />
<br />
China Pacific Insurance Co Ltd far outperformed sector rivals on the day, jumping 2 percent in Hong Kong after posting favorable monthly premium growth data. Ping An Insurance slipped 0.5 percent, while China Life Insurance edged up 0.13percent.<br />
<br />
NetDragon dived 17.7 percent in Hong Kong after Baidu Inc, China's top search engine, said it plans to acquire app store 91 Wireless from NetDragon for $1.9 billion to strengthen its foothold in the country's highly competitive mobile computing sector. (Editing by Jacqueline Wong)
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04005726225577051963noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4972453200307686906.post-41302856265456458102013-07-18T18:00:00.000+08:002013-07-18T18:00:22.683+08:00China shares weigh on Hong Kong Property 引用: <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/">http://uk.reuters.com</a><br />
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HONG KONG, July 18 (Reuters) - China shares underperformed Asia in mid-morning trade on Thursday, weighing on Hong Kong markets, with the financial and <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong Property</a> sectors hit by concerns over the availability of financing for real estate developers.<br />
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The pace of China's monthly home price increase slowed for a third straight month in June though the year-on-year gain was the strongest this year, underlining the challenges facing Beijing's near four-year-old campaign to tame housing inflation.<br />
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By 0313 GMT, the CSI300 of the leading Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listings was down 0.9 percent, while the Shanghai Composite Index slid 0.6 percent. Both broke below chart support that held for a week, pointing to more losses in the near term.<br />
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The Hang Seng Index slipped 0.1 percent, with the China Enterprises Index of the top Chinese listings in Hong Kong also flat. Bourse turnover in Hong Kong stayed weak.<br />
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"It's not just <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong Property</a> specific anymore," said Lee Wee Liat, BNP Paribas head of Asia <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong Property</a> "Fears are growing that the liquidity shock a few weeks ago may be starting to trickle into the sector."<br />
<br />
The official China Securities Journal reported on Thursday that financing requirements for listed <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong Property</a> evelopers will be gradually liberalised and loosened, subject to conditions. This follows a similar Xinhua news report on Wednesday.<br />
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BNP's Lee added that mainland media reports alleging inappropriate corporate behavior by state-owned conglomerates have raised concerns how that may potentially affect state-owned real estate developers.<br />
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Shares of China Vanke, the country's largest real estate developer by sales, declined 1.6 percent in Shenzhen. In Hong Kong, China Overseas Land and China Resources Land each fell nearly 2 percent.<br />
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Mid-sized lenders China Minsheng Bank and China Merchants Bank skidded 2.9 and 1.8 percent, respectively in Shanghai. Their Hong Kong-listed shares also suffered losses on the day.<br />
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Cement producers China Shanshui and BBMG Corp tanked after they warned of declining profits late on Wednesday, pointing to a likely divergence at their upcoming interim earnings reports due in August. Three other cement producers had issued positive profit alerts last week.<br />
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On Thursday, Shanshui slumped nearly 10 percent, nearing its June 25 low, which was also its lowest since April 2009. BBMG lost 1.9 percent, while sector giant Anhui Conch Cement slid 2.1 percent in Hong Kong.<br />
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But there were gains for China Resources Power, rising 2.3 percent after the company said on its website that it considers recent media reports alleging corruption in the company to be defamatory and that it had adversely affected the reputation of its leadership.
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04005726225577051963noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4972453200307686906.post-63443852899436163792013-07-15T13:04:00.001+08:002013-07-15T13:04:47.577+08:00Hong Kong Property agents hit as policies to cool property prices dent deal volume引用:http://www.scmp.com/<br />
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Hong Kong real estate agents are united. On Sunday morning, agents from big and small firms will march to government headquarters at Tamar in Admiralty to protest against measures designed to cool the <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong property</a> market which, they say, have affected their livelihoods.<br />
<br />
The protest is supported by industry leaders Centaline <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong property</a> gency and Midland Realty as well as associations representing smaller agencies. The industry is calling on the government to scrap the measures.<br />
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"The entire industry, both big and small agents, is suffering," said Centaline founder Shih Wing-ching.<br />
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Shih blames a decline in transaction volumes on measures introduced by Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying after he took office a year ago. The policies aim to curb soaring residential and non-residential <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong property</a>prices.<br />
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Centaline <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong property</a> gency said its agents recorded 11 secondary market transactions in the top 10 estates over the June 29-July 1 long weekend, down 31 per cent from the previous two-day weekend.<br />
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About 200 primary units have been sold in the seven new projects put on sale since the new Residential Properties (First-hand Sales) Ordinance came into effect just over two months ago.<br />
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"No one buys. No one rents. The market is dead," said Lai Chau-lin, in her early 60s, who works for a small <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong property</a>agency, Pak Shing Real Estate.<br />
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"I earned HK$1,100 in commission in February. That was my entire salary for the month and the lowest monthly income I've earned in the past 10 years."<br />
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Lai brokered one or two deals a month from March to June, for leases on sub-divided and regular units, earning between HK$3,000 and HK$5,000 a month after sharing the commissions with her boss.<br />
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"When the market was good, we had no time to go out for lunch because clients kept calling to look for flats," she said. "Today, I do not dare to go out for lunch because I have no money."<br />
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Sales of second-hand homes rose 23.9 per cent month on month to 3,314 units in June, compared with 2,674 in May, according to Centaline. The figures reflect the market conditions in May because of a time lag of about four weeks between buying a <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong property</a> and registering the sale. In April, there were 2,171 deals for second-hand homes.<br />
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<br />
<br />
'The number once hit as high as 9,000 in March last year," said Lai.<br />
<br />
The implementation of the ordinance on April 29 affected the market.<br />
<br />
New rules required greater transparency in <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong property</a> sales procedures, with developers having to publish sales brochures seven days before the official sale period and price lists three days before the launch, to give potential buyers time to study the details of offerings.<br />
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Agents said developers needed time to get used to the new rules. They said they expected sales to continue to be slow in the coming months. Sales of offices, shops and industrial properties have also declined.<br />
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Total <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong property</a> transactions, including residences, offices, shops and car parks, fell 12.7 per cent month on month in June to 4,616, according to Land Registry figures. The year-on-year decline was 45 per cent.<br />
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There were 8,302 transactions in January, 9,643 in February and 6,841 in March.<br />
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The fall in sales follows Leung's pledge to make flats more affordable for Hong Kong residents.<br />
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Hong Kong's housing prices have surged 120 per cent from 2008 and 34 per cent from their peak in 1997, Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah said on February 22, when he announced the latest round of <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong property</a> cooling measures.<br />
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Hong Kong is one of the least affordable <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong property</a> markets in the world, with an average home costing the equivalent of 12.6 times an average annual income, according to an International Monetary Fund report in January.<br />
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On February 22, Leung's administration made good on its pledge and Tsang announced the doubling of stamp duty on residential and non-residential transactions worth more than HK$2 million. The stamp duty did not apply to those buying homes for the first time.<br />
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In a package of measures announced the same month, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the city's de facto central bank, announced its sixth round of measures to rein in housing prices since 2009, requiring banks to test borrowers' ability to repay mortgages on the assumption that interest rates would rise by 3 percentage points, instead of 2 percentage points previously.<br />
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It also lowered the maximum allowable loan-to-value ratio for non-residential <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong property</a> to 40 per cent from 50 per cent for locals. It also capped mortgages for car parks at 40 per cent of their value, down from 50 per cent, and reduced their repayment terms to 15 years from 20 years.<br />
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The steps were the first taken by the HKMA that dealt with non-residential loans. In October, a 15 per cent levy on non-local and corporate <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong property</a> buyers, known as buyer's stamp duty, was introduced.<br />
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That same month, the government raised a special stamp duty on sellers, introduced in 2010 to curb speculation, by 5 percentage points, and extended its effect on resales from two to three years. The rates now range from 10 to 20 per cent.<br />
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Major domestic agencies and international <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong property</a> consultants are diversifying their businesses.<br />
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<a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong property</a> consultant Savills, which until now had focused on brokering big-ticket <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong property</a> transactions and introducing overseas properties to Hong Kong buyers, is now expanding its sales force as it moves to enter the mass housing market.<br />
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"Small players will be forced out of the market," said Raymond Lee, chief executive of Savills, Greater China. "There are 40,000 real estate agents. One third will be forced out of the market."<br />
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Not all industry players agree the measures should be axed.<br />
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"The cooling measures are not targeted at agents, but the red-hot <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong property</a> market," said Ringo Lam Chun-chiu, valuation director at AG Wilkinson & Associates. "In the face of rising <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong property</a> prices, it is good to see the government impose measures to cool the market."<br />
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Professor Chau Kwong-wing, from the department of real estate and construction at the University of Hong Kong, said the decline in transaction volumes had affected the market.<br />
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"<a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong property</a> agents are being hit hardest, followed by related industries such as solicitors, surveyors and those who refurbish flats," he said. "Some will be forced out."<br />
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Chau said the weakening of these sectors would not result in a slowdown in Hong Kong's economy.<br />
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"Instead, Hong Kong's economy will be hit by external factors such as the global economy and the mainland's economic growth."
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04005726225577051963noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4972453200307686906.post-29982068749190284672013-07-12T18:18:00.000+08:002013-07-12T18:18:01.962+08:00Hong Kong developers' tepid bids for site reveal gloomy outlook for pricesThe lacklustre bidding for a Tseung Kwan O residential site on Tuesday shows that developers believe <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong property</a> prices will come under pressure over the next few years, analysts say.<br />
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Chinachem's winning tender of HK$3 billion translates into an accommodation value of HK$3,653 per square foot, the lowest in the area in more than three years.<br />
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About 4,000 flats in Tseung Kwan O are available for sale, Centaline <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong property</a>Agency said.<br />
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Ken Lee Yuk-cheung, a sales director at the firm, said about 100 flat owners cut their asking price by 1 to 2 per cent after the tender result was released and that around 20 cut their asking price by more than 2 per cent.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://www.scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/980w/public/2013/06/26/dcd71038a1771c27a7b7805d81e2eb21.jpg?itok=Q1x-cPg4" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="198" src="http://www.scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/980w/public/2013/06/26/dcd71038a1771c27a7b7805d81e2eb21.jpg?itok=Q1x-cPg4" width="320" /></a></div>
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"But the news was not so daunting as to make a majority of flat owners cut their asking prices," he said.<br />
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Eric Yuen Chi-fung, the head of research at Guoco Capital, said the bidding reflected developers' expectations for <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong property</a> rices three to four years down the road. "They believe <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong property</a> rices have downward potential, and so that's why their offers were conservative," Yuen said.<br />
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"Chinachem is a private company and is under no pressure to publicly report its profit. Its offer was the highest of the developers. The others must hold a more negative outlook."<br />
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Yuen said he believed developers were pessimistic because interest rates may rise as the US Federal Reserve moves closer to reducing its stimulus programme.<br />
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"Development costs will increase if interest rates rise," he said. "As construction costs continue to rise and housing supply increases significantly, developers have turned conservative when acquiring land."<br />
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Yuen said he expected <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong property</a> rices to drop, adding that how far they fall depended on the performance of financial markets. "It seems the government hopes <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong property</a>prices will fall 20 per cent," he added.<br />
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Charles Chan Chiu-kwok, the managing director of consultancy Savills, said he expected prices to drop 10 per cent to 15 per cent in the second half.<br />
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"<a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong property</a> prices face downward pressure, as <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong property</a> ales have stayed at a low level," he said. "Flat owners will have to cut their asking prices to lure buyers, and prices of new homes will be affected by an increase in supply."<br />
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Lee Wee Liat, the head of <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong property</a> esearch at BNP Paribas Securities, said mass residential prices would be flat or rise by as much as 5 per cent.<br />
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"Developers submitted conservative offers for the Tseung Kwan O site because there will be plenty of new supply in the area," Lee said. "Demand for mass residential remains strong, and rental yields are still higher than mortgage rates, but the outlook for high-end residential flats is not positive."
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04005726225577051963noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4972453200307686906.post-67388324858897168582013-06-28T17:40:00.001+08:002013-06-28T17:40:16.148+08:00Hong Kong, China anxious on rising property interest rates引用: <a href="http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/">http://www.globalpropertyguide.com</a><br />
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<a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong Property</a> is yet to give up on its property cooling measure, but interest rates may increase in anticipation of the U.S. Federal Bureau’s next move, Finance Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah said.<br />
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The Federal Reserve’s hint of easing the quantitative easing by year-end might see the sudden exit of hot money from <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong Property</a> and other Asian markets, Mr. Tsang explains at the sidelines of an event hosted by the <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong Property</a> Association of Banks.<br />
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An increase in rates is seen affecting the property sector, Mr. Tsang adds, though this might only happen when the U.S. starts raising interest rates, which nowadays remained close to zero.<br />
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Mr. Tsang notes that it is still hard to predict how the eventual increase in rates will erode the island-city’s property prices, but has assured that there is adequate liquidity based on the cost of holding a property and the low mortgage lending rate are in place.<br />
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He, however, pointed out that asset bubbles are still imminent and the government is prepared to take action if needed.<br />
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The 14-day interbank rate in the mainland rose on record last week at 8.56% due to mounting liquidity concerns. <br />
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Mr. Tsang explains that the 14-day interbank rate is crucial for a bank in order to meet the end-of-quarter book balancing. The end of quarter reporting is due by end of this week.<br />
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The mainland banks’ interest rates could be a cause of worry for <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong Property</a> banks, he tells South China Morning Post.<br />
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Nonetheless, Standard Chartered Bank’s CEO, Benjamin Hung Pi-cheng, predicts <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong Property</a> interest rates will remain flat for the entire year adding that the island-city’s rates are pegged to the US rates.
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04005726225577051963noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4972453200307686906.post-47812472735574594492013-06-24T18:42:00.003+08:002013-06-24T18:42:56.538+08:00Sydney’s Skye by Crown lures Hong Kong and Singapore buyers<span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;">Sydney’s Skye by Crown lures Hong Kong and Singapore buyers</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;">引用: </span><a href="http://www.property-report.com/">http://www.property-report.com</a><br />
Leading Australian <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong Property</a> firm Crown Group’s latest Sydney development attracted more than US$20 million in apartment sales in Hong Kong and Singapore during the launch earlier this month.<br />
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“It is encouraging to see such a strong response to Crown Group’s apartments from buyers in Singapore and Hong Kong,” said Crown Group CEO Iwan Sunito. ”They want to buy in areas that are strengthening, areas that are underpinned by employment, transport, shopping and education, with genuine faith in the product they’re buying into.”<br />
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Crown Group launched Skye by Crown over two days at the Mandarin Oriental in Hong Kong and Regent Hotel in Singapore, in addition to a local event held in Sydney. The sales from all three launches totaled more than US$100 million.<br />
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Buyers in Hong Kong and Singapore were given exclusive access to a selection of the apartments.<br />
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Upon completion, the complex will comprise 232 apartments, set over 20-storeys. The building will feature a restaurant and retail precinct at ground level, as well as an infinity edge pool.<br />
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Designed by Japanese Australian architect Koichi Takada, the designs include glass facades, with balconies, and wintergreens, and a sculpturally inspired bronze coloured metal veil.
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04005726225577051963noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4972453200307686906.post-35475494312988920992013-06-19T12:05:00.002+08:002013-06-19T12:05:16.378+08:00Hong Kong Chief Executive Pledges Property Curbs to Stay引用: <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/">http://www.bloomberg.com</a><br />
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Hong Kong, the world’s most expensive home market, will not ease its real-estate curbs until there’s a steady supply of new properties as the government seeks to address concerns that it favors developers.<br />
Earlier actions have brought down prices and rents, and the government can do more if needed, Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying, 58, said in an interview in New York. An index of <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong property</a> stocks fell to the lowest in nine months.<br />
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“There’s a voice out there in the Hong Kong community that the government should ease off,” the former <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong property</a> surveyor said yesterday. “This is not the time to relent.”<br />
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<a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong property</a> transactions in Hong Kong have tapered off, hurting developers, since Leung introduced his toughest measures yet in February by doubling a sales tax and extending curbs to commercial real estate. As Leung completes his first year in office in July, he’s seeking to focus on the economy to bolster his popularity, which is near a record low.<br />
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“Leung has been trying to strengthen his performance in social and public policies to win him more public support,” said Dixon Sing, an associate professor of social science at the Hong Kong University of Science & Technology. “Failing to get <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong property</a> rices under control will risk hurting Hong Kong’s competitiveness and Leung’s popularity.”<br />
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Home prices in the former British colony have more than doubled to a record since the start of 2009, spurring protests as developers booked rising profits. Leung came into office last July pledging to narrow a record wealth gap, address housing affordability and clean up the environment.<br />
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<b>Transactions Drop</b><br />
The Hang Seng <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong property</a> ndex (HSP), which tracks nine of the biggest developers listed in the city, fell as much as 3.6 percent today to the lowest since September. It closed 0.5 percent lower, extending this year’s decline to 11 percent, compared with the 7.8 percent decline in the benchmark Hang Seng Index.<br />
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Leung in February doubled stamp duty taxes on all <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong property</a> ransactions over HK$2 million, after imposing an extra tax on home purchases by companies and non-residents in October. Since 2010, the government has charged an extra tax of up to 20 percent of the value of homes on buyers who resell them within three years and raised the minimum down-payment on mortgages for homes costing more than HK$7 million.<br />
Home transactions fell for a third consecutive month in May. They dropped to 3,286 in December, the lowest since November 2008. Prices have dropped 3 percent since a record high in March, according to an index compiled by Centaline <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong property</a> Agency Ltd.<br />
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<b><br /></b>
<b>Mainland Chinese</b><br />
“We’re delivering results,” Leung said when asked about his performance. “We have made a very clear stance on the question of <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong property</a> rices. For the first time in a very long time, the allegations that there is somehow collusion between Hong Kong and the developer industry have gone away.”<br />
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Leung’s support rating was 46.7 on a scale of 0 to 100, according to survey of 1,012 people conducted June 3-5 by the University of Hong Kong’s Public Opinion Program, down from 53.8 when he took office. He has been hurt by illegal building additions to his home and student protests against a plan to introduce national education classes that are seen as overly favorable to China’s Communist government.<br />
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The Hong Kong economy will continue to be bolstered by rising numbers of Chinese tourists, Leung said. The city had 48.6 million arrivals last year, of which more than 34.9 million were from China, according to the government. Total arrivals may gain 15 percent this year, Leung said.<br />
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Mainland Chinese accounted for 15 percent of all residential <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong property</a> ales in Hong Kong in the first quarter, down from 31 percent over the previous three months, according to Centaline. The figure reached a record 51 percent in the third quarter of 2011.<br />
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<b>Milk Powder</b><br />
Leung said he’s aware of the rising tension Chinese visitors have brought to Hong Kong, as they swamp shops and buy up daily necessities and homes. The government will continue to ensure that residents come first, he said.<br />
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The chief executive has banned Chinese mothers from giving birth in Hong Kong, restricted purchases of milk powder by visitors and sold some land to be developed for resident-only housing.<br />
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Asked about the city’s 30-year-old currency peg to the U.S. dollar, Leung said it has served Hong Kong well and there’s no discussion of replacing it.<br />
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To expand the economy in the longer term, Leung said he wants to add to the services the city provides, cementing its place as China’s finance center. Hong Kong should look into shipping finance and insurance, for example, diversifying away from managing initial public listings and commercial banking, he said.<br />
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“We want to grow, we want to diversify,” Leung said. “We want to move up the food chain. China is fast becoming a major maritime and shipbuilding nation in the world. Is there a reason why we shouldn’t diversify?”
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<span style="font-size: small;">Click Property Agency Limited : <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong Property </a>| <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong Office </a>| <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong Real Estate Agency</a></span></h3>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04005726225577051963noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4972453200307686906.post-36927886010001454202013-06-11T13:15:00.004+08:002013-06-11T13:15:52.546+08:00Foreign chambers of commerce hit out at doubling of Hong Kong stamp duty引用: <a href="http://www.scmp.com/">http://www.scmp.com</a><br />
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Chambers of commerce that represent hundreds of foreign firms in Hong Kong are voicing unhappiness at the recent doubling of stamp duty on commercial <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong Property</a> purchases.<br />
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The government's February 22 tax increase on <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong Property</a> sales exceeding HK$2 million was designed to rein in speculation. But foreign firms say they have been unfairly targeted by the move, which greatly raises their business costs in the city.<br />
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The top bracket - on sales of more than HK$20 million - rose to 8.5 per cent of <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong Property</a> value, from 4.25 per cent.<br />
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Because of the increase, Canadian insurer Manulife Financial had to pay HK$383 million instead of HK$191 million when it spent HK$4.5 billion to purchase the planned West Tower at One Bay East in Kwun Tong last month for its own use.<br />
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The Canadian Chamber of Commerce has written to the Legislative Council, urging the government to grant an exemption to long-term buyers of office space for their own use.<br />
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"[Chamber members] are purchasing the office space to try to fix their costs in an expensive city," said David Nesbitt, the chamber's executive director. "But they are unfairly punished. We have written a letter laying out our disagreement with long-term and normal purchasers [of commercial properties] being punished by the taxation, which isn't aimed at them."<br />
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Nesbitt said the chamber represented 180 companies operating in Hong Kong, from large organisations like Manulife to firms with a handful of employees.<br />
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"Some of our members are considering purchasing [commercial] <a href="http://www.click-prop.com/">Hong Kong Property</a> or have already done so," he said.<br />
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The Australian Chamber of Commerce said it would also be expressing its concerns that the raised duty would discourage genuine users from buying commercial properties.<br />
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The American Chamber of Commerce is drafting its views on the issue, people familiar with the matter said. The British Chamber of Commerce is also said to be concerned.<br />
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The Canadian chamber's letter was sent to the Legislative Council's Bills Committee on Stamp Duty (Amendment) Bill 2013 last week, urging the government to consider the "unintended consequences" of the doubling of stamp duty for all buyers.<br />
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The chamber suggested the government consider the example of Singapore, which included an exemption from extra duty for non-residential properties held for more than three years.<br />
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A spokeswoman for the Australian chamber said its construction and finance committees would be responding with suggestions for exemptions.<br />
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"The negative flow-on effects include limited diversification of ownership as well as fewer choices for commercial tenants," she said.<br />
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The Australian chamber is the second-largest in Hong Kong, with almost 1,400 members representing about 500 companies.<br />
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A spokesman for the American chamber, the largest chamber, refused to comment. A member of the British chamber's real estate panel did not return calls. A member of the Legco's Bills Committee said a meeting would be held today to discuss the issue.
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